An Empirical Study of FIIs Investment Pattern in
Different Sectors and Its Impact on Sectoral Indices
Dr. L. Ganesamoorthy1*, A Adil Hussain Baba2
1Assistant
Professor in Commerce, Annamalai University, Annamalainagar – 608 002, Tamilnadu,
2Research Scholar,
Department of Commerce, Annamalai University, Annamalainagar – 608 002, Tamilnadu.
*Corresponding Author E-mail: lganesh_cdm@yahoo.co.in
ABSTRACT:
Indian stock market attracts foreign investors, since
it gives high return than developed and most of the developing markets. FIIs are the investors who invest in bulk in
Indian stock market. About 20 per cent
of investments in Indian stock market are by FIIs. In order to know sector wise
investment of FIIs and its impact on concerned sectoral
index, an analysis has been made. The
study was undertaken to study the trend of selected sectoral
indices and FIIs investment in selected sectors and its impact on the movement
of sectoral indices.
The study selected Bank, Automobile, Information Technology, Capital
Goods, Oil and Gas, Metal and Realty sectors and concerned sectoral
indices maintained by BSE. The data
related to FIIs investment in selected sectors and sectoral
indices were collected on fortnightly basis from 15th January 2012
to 31st March 2014. For this
purpose of analysing trend of select sector indices,
the data collected for 10 years from 2004-05 to 2013-14 on yearly basis. The study applied trend analysis and
correlation analysis as statistical tools.
The study found that growth of the indices BSE AUTO, BSE BANKEX, BSE CG,
BSE IT and BSE OG were high, the growth rate of the index BSE METAL was low and
there was adverse growth in the index BSE REALTY. The study also evidenced that FIIs investment
in the sectors of finance, automobile, information technology, capital goods,
oil and gas and metal had significant impact on the concerned sectoral indices and the co-efficient of correlation was
very high. FIIs investment in realty
sector did not have significant impact on the movement of sectoral
index of BSE REALTY.
KEY
WORDS: FII, stock market,
sector, impact and investment.
The
stock market deals with securities already issued by the corporate. Shares are issued by the corporate to the
public for the first time is called Initial Public Offering (IPO). After making
the issuance of the shares/securities the companies list their security in a recognized
stock exchange. After the share is getting listed, it is allowed to trade in
the exchange. Share of a company is listed at a specific price, later the share
price is determined by the market, generally it is fluctuating in nature, this
is caused by various factors such as macro, micro economic variables and the
factors specifically related to the company.
Index
system is followed by exchanges, which reveals the overall movement of stock
markets. Under this system an exchange considers average change in value of
certain number of shares of top companies in terms of turnover of shares. So
index plays as proxy for overall market movement. In India there are 21 recognized
stock exchanges, among them the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock
Exchange (NSE) are functioning as national level stock exchanges. Out of total
quantity and value of shares traded in India, 99.5 per cent are traded in these
two exchanges together. Among various
types of investors such as individual and institutional investors, Foreign
Institutional Investors (FIIs) are playing vital role in stock market, because
they are playing as major investors in the market. FIIs are the foreign institutions who
registered with Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) as FII and make
investment in Indian stock market.
Presently FIIs are playing as major investors in Indian stock market,
especially in equities. Until 1990,
foreign investments were not allowed in to India. In early 90’s under a new economic policy as
per the recommendations of Narsiman Committee,
Foreign Investors were allowed to invest in India with some restrictions. In the year 1992-93, foreign investors were
allowed to invest in Indian capital market.
Since then the FIIs have been investing in India and their investment
has been increasing. During the year
1996-97, 439 FIIs were registered with SEBI which increased to 1739 during the
year 2013-14. FIIs invest about 20 per
cent of the total amount invested in Indian capital market. Net investment of FIIs was Rs.51649 crore during 2013-141.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) are
contributing more or less 20 per cent of the total investment made by all type
of investors. As a major investors, their investment behaviour
may affect the market either positively or negatively, the reason because FIIs
are large and well educated investors.
They study the market carefully and invest accordingly. They go for the sectors which are progressing
and performing well. Earlier studies
have identified that FIIs are concentrating on eight major sectors for
investment. They are Banking,
Automobile, Information Technology, Capital goods, Oil and Gas, Metal and
Realty sectors. According to SEBI data,
during 2013-14, 60.09 per cent of FIIs total investment went to these seven
major sectors2. BSE is
maintaining separate indices for major sectors including these sectors. The shares belonged to concerned sector which
are included in BSE 500 index are included in specific sector index. Movement of sectoral
indices reveals overall movement of share prices of companies which belonged to
a particular sector. A study of FII
investment in a particular sector and the movement of sectoral
indices will exhibit the impact of FII investment on the particular
sector. Hence the study has made an
attempt to analyse the FII investment in the selected
sectors and movement of the concerned sector indices.
LITERATURE REVIEW:
Malayendu Sahu (2009) evidenced that there was a cause-effect
relationship between Indian stock market with FII investment. The FII had an
impact on foreign markets and Indian capital markets and also it affected
foreign exchange rate and stock price movement.
Positive correlation was found between net investment by FII and
movement of stock market. Jimmy Kapadia, Pooja Patel and Bhavik Pancholi (2010) found very
low positive correlation between FII net investment and Sensex
returns during 2007. Ganesamoorthy
and Shankar (2012) evidenced that FII net investment was increased at rate
higher than the rate of increase of select indices. The study found positive
relationship between FII net investment and return of select indices during
2001-10. The study also evidenced that the impact was more during the second
sub period. Syed
Tabassum and Pardhasaradhi
(2012) evidenced a moderate positive Correlation between FII and Sensex and FII had a significant impact on Indian stock
market. Sayantan
Bandhu Majumdar and Rajandra Narayan Nag (2013) found
that higher stock market returns amplified the volume and volatility of the FII
without any evidence on the other direction.
The study also found that the flow of FII had no significant effect on
the inducing volatility in the stock market.
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM:
FIIs are investing in Indian stock markets because it
gives high returns than other developed and most of the developing markets. There
are various sectors in India and all the sectors are not performing uniformly.
There is variation among the performance of sectors in terms of return in stock
markets. FIIs try to find best performing sectors in the view of getting more
return and prevent from losses. Many
studies have been made to analyse the impact of FII
investment on stock market movement at a whole.
Investigating the impact of FII investment in a particular sector and
the movement of the sector index was very limited. Hence the researchers have made an attempt in
this aspect.
OBJECTIVES:
1. To study the trend of selected sectoral indices and
2. To study FIIs investment in selected
sectors and its impact on the movement of sectoral
indices.
METHODOLOGY:
The data related to FIIs investment in selected
sectors and sectoral indices were collected on
fortnightly basis from 15th January 2012 to 31st March
2014. For this purpose of analysing trend of select sector indices, the data
collected for 10 years from 2004-05 to 2013-14 on yearly basis. The study applied trend analysis and
correlation analysis as statistical tools.
The data were collected from various reports of SEBI and official
websites of BSE and SEBI. Methodologies
followed for analysis are presented subsequently. For the purpose of analysis, return on
selected sectoral indices, FII net investments were
calculated and correlation analysis was applied to know the impact.
Impact of FIIs investment on the movement of selected sectoral indices was calculated as,
Where, x refers to change of FII investment, Y refers
to return on index.
Returns on selected sectoral
indices were calculated as,
Where, SI refers to Sectoral
Index, t- current period and t-1 – previous period.
FIIs’ net investment was calculated as,
Where, I refers to changes in FIIs investment, t-
current period and t-1 – previous period.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION:
The scripts which are included in broad
based index of BSE 500 are classified on the basis of sector and they are the
components of sectoral indices. This index reveals
the performance of each sector in terms of share price movement. The study analysed
the effects of FIIs net investment in select sectors and its impact on the
movement of concerned sectoral indices maintained by
BSE. The study has taken seven major
sectors for which separate indices are maintained by Bombay Stock Exchange
(BSE) namely Automobile, Bank, Capital Goods, Information Technology (IT),
Metal and Mining, Oil and Gas and Realty sectors. The
selected indices of BSE were BANKEX, BSE AUTO, BSE IT, BSE CG, BSE METAL and
BSE REALTY. Table 1 gives the results of trend of select sector indices of BSE
for the period of ten years.
Table 1:
Trend of Selected Sectoral Indices of BSE
|
Year |
BSE
BANKEX |
% Change |
BSE
AUTO |
% Change |
BSE
IT |
% Change |
BSE
CG |
% Change |
|
2004-05 |
3847.96 |
|
2644.94 |
|
2701.35 |
|
3192.17 |
|
|
2005-06 |
5265.24 |
36.83 |
5322.73 |
101.24 |
4030.29 |
49.20 |
8170.56 |
155.96 |
|
2006-07 |
6542.01 |
24.25 |
4869.13 |
-8.52 |
4899.39 |
21.56 |
9074.72 |
11.07 |
|
2007-08 |
7717.61 |
17.97 |
4524.77 |
-7.07 |
3547.61 |
-27.59 |
14009.02 |
54.37 |
|
2008-09 |
4490.97 |
-41.81 |
3061.67 |
-32.34 |
2285.68 |
-35.57 |
6466.03 |
-53.84 |
|
2009-10 |
10652.35 |
137.19 |
7671.24 |
150.56 |
5237.5 |
129.14 |
14081.74 |
117.78 |
|
2010-11 |
13299.77 |
24.85 |
9290.75 |
21.11 |
6548.1 |
25.02 |
13092.14 |
-7.03 |
|
2011-12 |
11751.18 |
-11.64 |
10134.88 |
9.09 |
6081.87 |
-7.12 |
10027.92 |
-23.41 |
|
2012-13 |
13033.35 |
10.91 |
9994.23 |
-1.39 |
6885.46 |
13.21 |
9017.59 |
-10.08 |
|
2013-14 |
14572.46 |
11.81 |
13280.27 |
32.88 |
8789.38 |
27.65 |
12011.23 |
33.20 |
|
Mean |
9117.29 |
|
7079.46 |
|
5100.66 |
|
9914.31 |
|
|
SD |
4006.65 |
|
3524.95 |
|
2031.63 |
|
3500.32 |
|
|
CV |
43.95 |
|
49.79 |
|
39.83 |
|
35.31 |
|
|
CAGR |
14.24 |
|
17.51 |
|
12.52 |
|
14.17 |
|
Table 1:
Cont....
|
Year |
BSE
OG |
% Change |
BSE
METAL |
% Change |
BSE
REALTY |
% Change |
|
2004-05 |
3053.95 |
|
6323.04 |
|
|
|
|
2005-06 |
4918.98 |
61.07 |
8869.91 |
40.28 |
1588.53 |
|
|
2006-07 |
6419.18 |
30.50 |
8488.44 |
-4.30 |
5646.06 |
255.43 |
|
2007-08 |
10016.82 |
56.05 |
14022.56 |
65.20 |
7554.8 |
33.81 |
|
2008-09 |
7053.04 |
-29.59 |
5795.07 |
-58.67 |
1560.83 |
-79.34 |
|
2009-10 |
10159.14 |
44.04 |
17973.81 |
210.16 |
3273.56 |
109.73 |
|
2010-11 |
10240.64 |
0.80 |
16161.39 |
-10.08 |
2337.01 |
-28.61 |
|
2011-12 |
8087.5 |
-21.03 |
11346.31 |
-29.79 |
1708.05 |
-26.91 |
|
2012-13 |
8326.6 |
2.96 |
8758.32 |
-22.81 |
1780.09 |
4.22 |
|
2013-14 |
9485.72 |
13.92 |
10059.1 |
14.85 |
1468.4 |
-17.51 |
|
Mean |
7776.16 |
|
10779.80 |
|
2990.81 |
|
|
SD |
2424.93 |
|
4079.29 |
|
2174.51 |
|
|
CV |
31.18 |
|
37.84 |
|
72.71 |
|
|
CAGR |
12.00 |
|
4.75 |
|
NA |
|
Source:
Computed from data collected from www.bseindia.com
It
could be known from table 1 that BSE bank index (BSE BANKEX) increased
drastically during the study period. It
increased from 3847.96 points in 2004-05 to 14572.46 points in 2013-14. Mean value of the index was 9117.29
points. The results of standard
deviation and co-efficient of variation showed a moderate level of deviation in
the index from its mean value. The calculated
value of CAGR (14.24 per cent) showed drastic increase in the index during the
study period. The results also showed
that during 2008-09, the index decreased rapidly by 41.81 per cent due to
global economic crisis and during 2011-12 it met an another decrease by 11.64
per cent. BSE index for automobile
industry (BSE AUTO) increased over the study period from 2644.94 points in
2004-05 to 13280.27 points in 2013-14.
It recorded a compounded annual growth rate of 17.51 per cent. There was a moderate level of deviation in
the index of BSE AUTO over the study period as shown by the results of SD and
CV at 3524.95 points and 49.79 per cent respectively. BSE AUTO met a decrease during 2006-07 to
2008-09, the rate of decrease during 2008-09 was severe at 32.34 per cent, as
other sectoral indices. The index decreased again during 2012-13, but
the rate of decrease was lower (1.39 per cent).
The index of BSE IT (for Information Technology sector) was also in
increasing trend over the study period.
It decreased during 2007-08 by 26.59 per cent, by 35.57 per cent during
2008-09 and it met another decrease during 2011-12 by 7.12 per cent. The results of SD and CV indicated lower
level of deviation of the index from its mean value during the study
period. The calculated value of CAGR was
12.52 per cent, it showed normal rate of growth of the index during the study
period.
The index of BSE CG (Capital Goods) recorded very high growth during 2005-06
and 2009-10 by 155.96 and 117.78 per cent respectively. The index went down at a high rate (53.84 per
cent) during 2008-09 due to global financial crisis. The index also decreased over previous year
during three continuous years from 2010-11 to 2012-13. The results of SD and CV indicated minimum
level of deviation in the index from its mean value. The results of CAGR (14.17 per cent) showed a
considerable growth in the index during the study period. BSE index for oil and gas sector (BSE OG)
recorded considerable growth during 2005-06 to 2007-08 by 61.07, 30.5 and 56.05
per cent respectively. During 2008-09,
it met a downfall by 29.59 per cent over previous year due to global financial
crisis, but the rate of decrease was lower than any other selected sectoral indices.
The reason is that this sector mainly dealt with foreign currency, and
hence derived the benefit from fluctuation of exchange rate (upward) of Indian
currency against foreign currencies. The index increased by 44.04 per cent
during 2009-10 and it met a decrease again during 2011-12 by 21.03 per
cent. Moderate level of deviation was found
in BSEOG index as shown by the results of SD and CV. The result of CAGR showed a considerable
growth in the index during the study period.
The
index of BSE METAL was fluctuating every year.
It increased considerably during 2005-06 by 40.28 per cent, its growth
rate was high during 2007-08 (65.20 per cent).
During 2008-09, the index went down (by 58.67 per cent) as other sectoral indices.
But during 2009-10, the index recovered from the crisis unlike other
indices (by 210.16 per cent). But during
the following three years the index decreased continuously and it went up
during 2013-14 by 14.85 per cent. The
results of SD and CV showed moderate level of deviation of this index from its
mean value and the results of CAGR (4.75 per cent) showed poor growth of this
index during the study period. BSE
REALTY index is highly fluctuating over the study period. The index was incepted only during
2005-06. It increased at very high rate
during 2006-07 (255.43 per cent). As
other indices this index also decreased during 2008-09 due to global financial
crisis, it recovered during the next year, it was decreasing during the
remaining years of the study period except 2012-13. The results of SD and CV
showed high deviation of the index from its mean value.
#It
was observed that during the year 2008-09 all the sectors were affected due to
global financial crisis, hence the sectoral indices
of BSE also experienced downfall during the year. Realty sector affected severely (79.34% down
over previous year) followed by BSE METAL, BSE CG and BSE BANK EX. BSE OG was the least affected sector during
global financial crisis followed by BSE AUTO and BSE IT.
Impact
of FII Investment on Sectoral Indices
Table
2 gives the results of correlation analysis between FII net investment and
return on selected sectoral indices of BSE in order
to know the impact of FIIs investment on selected sectoral
indices.
Table 2: Impact of FIIs Investment on Sectoral Indices
|
|
BSE BANKEX |
BSE AUTO |
BSE IT |
BSE CG |
BSE OIL and GAS |
BSE METAL |
BSE REALTY |
|
Pearson Correlation |
0.878 |
0.799 |
0.917 |
0.782 |
0.796 |
0.905 |
-0.099 |
|
Sig. (2-tailed) |
.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.480 |
|
N |
53 |
53 |
53 |
53 |
53 |
53 |
53 |
It was found from table 2 that FIIs net
investment in finance sector and the index of BSE BANKEX (proxy index for
finance sector) were highly and significantly correlated (0.878). hence FIIs investment in finance sector had
significant impact on BSE BANKEX. FIIs
net investment on automobile sector had high and significant correlation with
the index of BSE AUTO (proxy index for automobile sector), which indicated
significant impact of FII investment in automobile sector on the index of
BSEAUTO. The correlation between FIIs
net investment on information technology sector was higher (0.917) with the sectoral index for IT (BSE IT) than any other sectors. It showed significant impact of FIIs net
investment in IT sector on the index of BSE IT.
BSE maintains separate index for the sector
capital goods called BSE CG. The results
of table 2 shows significant correlation of FIIs net investment in the sector
on the index of BSE CG (proxy index for capital goods sector). It indicated significant impact of FIIs
investment in the sector on the movement of BSECG. But correlation co-efficient is lower than
other sectors. FIIs investment on oil
and gas sector had significant correlation on the index of BSE OIL and
GAS. It showed a significant impact of
FIIs investment on oil and gas sector on the movement of the index BSE OIL and
GAS. FIIs investment in metal sector had
high and significant correlation (0.905) on the movement of the index of BSE
METAL. It reveals significant impact of
FIIs investment in metal sector on the movement of the index BSE METAL. There was very low negative and insignificant
correlation between FIIs net investment in realty sector and the movement of
the index BSE REALTY. Unlike other
sectors, FIIs investment in the sector did not have significant impact on the
movement of BSE REALTY. It is because
the amount of investment of FIIs in the sector was comparatively less and there
are some restrictions in making investment in reality sector by FIIs.
CONCLUSION:
Movement of stock market is driven by various
factors. FIIs investment is one of the
factors which effect market movement.
FIIs are the major investments in Indian stock market. They analyse the
market and select good performing sectors for making investment. Their investment is about 20 per cent in the
stock market. The study analysed the impact of FIIs investment in major sectors in
terms of in which FIIs had invested more and on the movement of concerned sectoral index maintained by BSE. The study selected seven major sectors and
their sectoral indices. The study found that growths of the indices
BSE AUTO, BSE BANKEX, BSE CG, BSE IT and BSE OG were high, the growth rate of
the index BSE METAL was low and there was adverse growth in the index BSE
REALTY. The study also evidenced that
FIIs investment in the sectors of finance, automobile, information technology,
capital goods, oiland gas and metal had significant
impact on the concerned sectoral indices and the
co-efficient of correlation was very high.
FIIs investment in realty sector did not have significant impact on the
movement of sectoral index of BSE REALTY.
REFERENCE:
1.
SEBI Handbook of Statistics, 2014. Securities and
Exchange Board of India.
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Bandyopadhyay Sankhanath.
Foreign Institutional Investment: Issue and
Challenges. Foreign Institutional Investments-Perspective and Experiences,
ICFAI University Press; 2005: 3-18.
3.
Malayendu Sahu. Stock Market in
India and Foreign Institutional Investment: An Appraisal. Journal of Business
and Economic Ties. 1(1); 2009: 1-5.
4.
Jimmy Kapadia, Pooja Patel and Bhavik Pancholi. Relationship between FII and Sensex,
International Journal of Research in Commerce and management. 1(6); 2010:
96-104.
5.
Ganeshamoorthy L and Shankar H. Dynamics of FII Investment and
Stock Market Returns in India: An Empirical Analysis, Indian Journal of
Finance. 6(5); 2012: 25-31.
6.
Syed Tabassum and Pardhasaradhi S. Impact of Flow of FDI and FII on Indian
Stock Market, Finance Research. 1(3); 2012: 4-10.
7.
Sayantan Bandhu Majumdar and Rajandra Narayan Nag. Foreign Institutional Investment, Stock Market
and Volatility: Recent Evidence from India, Indian Journal of Finance. 7(7);
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Received on 25.01.2016 Modified on 17.02.2016
Accepted on 25.02.2016 © A&V Publication all right reserved
Asian J. Management; 7(1): Jan.
–March, 2016 page 65-69
DOI: 10.5958/2321-5763.2016.00010.X